Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 24.326473 28.912467 34.645622 42.544302 53.500467 68.771695 92.942943
2024-12-15 19.281190 24.519772 31.842078 43.451052 62.832639 97.440659 176.340220
2024-12-22 15.885401 20.945003 28.467049 41.427908 65.837393 118.192331 284.893350
2024-12-29 14.011180 19.020633 26.856938 41.368278 71.930379 151.195908 541.508056
2025-01-05 12.283268 16.976516 24.555385 39.261067 72.698896 172.827610 928.930600
2025-01-12 10.771016 15.045774 22.081842 36.131590 69.676955 180.516445 1394.934378
2025-01-19 9.643074 13.593773 20.204590 33.742121 67.522104 190.147450 2306.479138
2025-01-26 9.836601 14.306231 22.225957 39.981663 92.432463 381.582946 NaN
2025-02-02 9.554655 14.169786 22.651057 42.850310 110.311090 657.209394 NaN
2025-02-09 8.789211 13.103227 21.110154 40.503245 107.633264 728.275612 NaN
2025-02-16 8.519769 12.892749 21.243421 42.490208 124.541714 1349.620764 NaN
2025-02-23 8.129940 12.423016 20.775903 42.745547 134.466801 2278.115004 NaN
2025-03-02 7.719081 11.912108 20.227945 42.871386 145.835743 4879.129041 NaN
2025-03-09 7.400468 11.547217 19.950957 43.768432 163.987798 24368.796315 NaN
2025-03-16 6.922428 10.836650 18.820352 41.722937 161.188397 59374.578935 NaN
2025-03-23 6.618709 10.438159 18.343490 41.662661 173.206737 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 6.219127 9.824213 17.310402 39.533142 167.201120 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 5.788509 9.126116 16.030003 36.371649 150.740392 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 5.431813 8.556447 15.008861 33.958661 139.517317 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 5.598213 9.024105 16.432893 40.261300 216.130241 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 5.549539 9.056284 16.832125 43.160733 276.471968 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 5.264939 8.586683 15.943249 40.788399 258.849044 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 5.189803 8.545200 16.123328 42.796707 318.032780 NaN NaN